Bet on which one? Today independents favorable view of three of them is Biden 37%, Harris 27%, Trump 41%. There’s no favorable/unfavorable on Mayor Pete. Questions 42A, 42B and 42G. https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/79n2jfbdep/econTabReport.pdf
Which is today, not in 2024. One also must remember that Trump has been out of the public eye. Independents tend to forget why they disliked him so much. Give Trump a week or two in front of the camera and constant tweeting, his favorable’s among independents will fall. Another aspect of this is independents remember when gas was 2 dollars a gallon, under Trump and now costs 3.50. Independents think their lives was better under Trump than it is under Biden today. The key caveat is Today.
Most independents have forgotten Trump completely. He’s no longer in charge, no longer president. He’s a forgotten piece of history, maybe even ancient history to them. But let him run for the presidency, those unsavory memories of how he behaved and acted, his constant tweeting, etc. will come rushing back.
My favorite Democrat for 2024 is Tammy Duckworth. Of course, this is just me.