I don’t share your 10-year hypostasis, although anything can happen. You could end up being right. My predictions if one wants to call them that are based on the numbers available today, not six months from now, a year or 10 years. So, all of them are if the election was held today. I haven’t the faintest idea what the numbers will show six months from now. I do, however, know the trend for the house is moving in the Republican’s direction and has since August. The senate has been stagnated with no movement whatsoever. Probably caused by a dearth of polls and in some states, none. I do have a good grasp on the 175 already drawn districts, the number of competitive districts has been decreased, drawn out of existence. There’s 5 less in these 175 newly drawn districts than under the than under the old maps. But that is to be expected.
It's high past time in my book for the youngsters to take over. The older folks have become too set in their ways. It will take the younger generations to get us out of our modern political era of polarization, the great divide and the super, mega, ultra-high partisanship. The old fogies won’t move on. I keep on thinking that at some time while the party faithful of both major parties keep shrinking, percentage wise. That one or the other will realize that they need to regain those who left their party for whatever reasons. That those who don’t have a grasp on the issues, just perceptions right or wrong, leaving them to decide elections. 44% if Gallup is correct is a huge percentage to have as non-affiliates, to have as swing voters or independents. Those that don’t pay much if any attention to politics until an election nears, then their attention is haphazard, some to only sound bites.
We’ll see as time goes by; you might be correct. I just can’t get past 2022, at least to give the future past that date much thought or research.