There are only a few possible outcomes of each election...
Which party wins is a 50/50 guess. 2020 was easy, despite Trump's legions of devotees his numbers over the course of his term said he was unelectable for a second term. He didn't get a majority of the votes in his first election and never really tried to win new voters.
He's still unelectable for a second term unless Democrats fail spectacularly. A very distinct possibility but time is on their side right now.
The House in 2022 is easy. Dems will lose seats because the party in power always loses seats. Even though every election is different and history is meaningless, as our colleagues insist, that axiom to the equation almost always holds true. If they had a substantial majority it wouldn't matter, but they don't and Reeps need only a few pickups to take control.
I don't examine individual seats until some headline draws my attention. Most are fairly safe but you never know where an anomaly might pop up, where a safe candidate gets caught with his hand in somebody's pants, or some old dirt gets dug up.
Surprises happen. They could happen in the Senate too, a single loss changes it all.
Democrats have got six months to shuffle things around, propagandize, manipulate, and try to get their approval rating up without actually doing anything. Passing a watered-down but bipartisan BBB is probably their best bet strategically.
If the latest variant of the virus proves somewhat benign and we continue to move past the pandemic, the stock market will soar, the jobs market will begin to return to normal with increases in pay across the board. Fuel prices will plummet(grocery prices will take longer) and Democrats will gladly take the credit (even though they insist none of it was their fault) and maintain control of the Senate.
In the longer term...
If things remain on an even keel, and Democrats abandon any notion they might have of running Harris or Buttigieg, we might see Democrats maintain control in 2024. Hopefully with someone we have currently never heard of. Someone like Beto O'Rourke, with a clean record, a wide smile, and Hollywood charisma.
But right now, if the 2024 election was held today, things look bleak for the Dems.
And because the Dems are in the majority here it's my job as moderator and content creator to rub their noses in the bleakest of possibilities imaginable. But one that WILL happen if things don't go just right. De Santis is a warrior, his political instincts are razor-sharp. He's kept the base without bowing to Trump. He WILL win against Biden or Harris unless things go spectacularly between now and then.
And he's a pretty good administrator behind the scenes too. Say what you will about the silliness of Florida in general, our economy seems to be doing fine, our covid case-loads have fallen and things seem to be going great here, under complete Republican control.
If he gets elected he will get re-elected as that is more normally what happens unless a president fails for one reason or another. Biden was never anything but a placeholder while the country did a re-set. No one pinned their hopes and dreams on him, they just hoped he's muddle through.
Last edited by Greger; 12/01/21 05:37 PM.